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Surprise Chicago PMI moves rates higher

It has been a strange Halloween morning in the interest rate world.  Rates moved lower to start the morning off of the normal not so great unemployment numbers.  But then minutes before Chicago PMI was released they jumped higher.  Then surprise surprise Chicago PMI came in 10.9 points higher than expected at 65.9.  Better economic data drives rates higher as a more stable economy results in less need for the federal reserve to buy bonds in order to keep rates low.  So a good number should result in higher rates.  But two big questions remain.  How does all this optimism appear during a government shut down (not to mention health premiums increasing) and who received these numbers before the report was released.

Bottom line is rates moved higher today but I still see rates moving down as we have not crossed over the key level of 2.6% on the 10 year treasury.  See the most recent rate information update here.


10 year treasury 5 day chart

5 day chart oct 31